Global Crop Monitor
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No. 31: Published April 3rd, 2025
Conditions as of March 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of March are positive for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, adverse conditions remain in parts of the Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the northern US, while dry conditions expand into the southern Great Plains of the US. For maize, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with areas of concern in Argentina, northeast Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, and sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are favourable, albeit with some spot issues in Cuba, Mexico, and Sub-Saharan Africa. For soybeans, conditions have improved in parts of Argentina and South Africa as exceptional yield expectations emerge in central Brazil. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions were present during late March, and a transition to ENSO-neutral is underway. Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through October 2025 (81 to 49 percent chances). At the end of 2025, there are similar chances of neutral or La Niña conditions, according to the CPC/IRI. Forecast above-average temperatures during late March to late April raise the risk of heat stress during maize reproductive development in central Brazil, which may exacerbate impacts of forecast below-average rainfall during that time. For further details, see the Global Climate Influences and Regional Outlook sections.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, winter wheat is emerging in the US as above-average temperatures and dry weather have increased drought conditions in parts of the southern plains. In Canada, winter wheat conditions remain dormant and under watch conditions in the Prairies. In Mexico, conditions are mixed in the north, with a reduction in total sown area due to the reduced availability of irrigation water. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable in the EU for winter wheat, however, prolonged dry weather has had irreversible negative impacts on yields in parts of Bulgaria and Romania. In Türkiye, conditions remain generally favourable despite recent cool and dry weather that has delayed crop growth. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat has broken dormancy several weeks early due to warm and dry weather, which has also contributed to drier than average conditions for the crops. In Ukraine, winter wheat has resumed vegetation earlier than normal due to a warm winter, however, varied soil moisture conditions risk yields. In Central Asia, winter wheat is breaking dormancy in Kazakhstan under favourable conditions. In Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan (irrigated wheat) winter wheat continues to develop under favourable conditions. Rainfed wheat sowing is ramping up in Afghanistan under favourable conditions, and spring wheat sowing is just beginning in Tajikistan with concern due to early-season dry conditions. In South Asia, harvesting in India is progressing in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, concern remains in the barani area of northern Punjab due to continuing below-average rainfall. In Nepal, harvesting is beginning. In East Asia, winter wheat in China is developing under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to the average. Spring wheat sowing is ongoing. In MENA, despite some rainfall improvements in February and March, generally dry conditions throughout the season are expected to result in below-average production across Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and northwestern Iran and continue to cause concern in most of Algeria, Libya, northern Iraq, and central and much of Iran. Conversely, overly wet conditions received in December continue to cause concern in northwestern Libya. In Sub-Saharan Africa, harvest is ongoing in Sudan under mixed conditions due to ongoing conflict.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvest in Brazil for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) progresses under generally favourable conditions. The South region's conditions are exceptional despite the lack of rain and high temperatures. Sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up. In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planted crop (usually the larger season) is gaining momentum with a significant drop in expected yields in the northern areas due to a lack of rainfall during much of the growing season. The late-planted crop (usually the smaller season) experienced periods of water deficit in parts of the northern and the southern agricultural areas; however, rains in February helped to stem yield losses. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable as harvest begins. In Central America & the Caribbean, dry conditions in northern and northwest Mexico have reduced available irrigation water for the Autumn-winter crop (smaller season). In Cuba, harvesting of second-season maize is just beginning, under favourable conditions. In North America, sowing in the US is beginning in the minor producing southeast under favourable conditions. In Asia, sowing is beginning in China for the spring-planted crop. In India, conditions are favourable for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Bangladesh, harvest is ongoing for the winter maize season (larger season) as sowing begins for the summer maize season (smaller season). In Nepal, the sowing of the main season crop is continuing. In Sri Lanka, the harvesting of the Maha season (the larger season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In East Africa, there is concern in Ethiopia for Belg season cereals due to limited rains received as well as renewed conflict in the north. Sowing and development of main season crops continues under mixed conditions due to rainfall deficits in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, and the United Republic of Tanzania. In West Africa, sowing of main season crops is just beginning in Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, and the Central African Republic. In Cameroon, sowing of second-season crops is just beginning. In Southern Africa, widespread above-normal rainfall in South Africa since early February has improved crop conditions. Harvesting of main season crops is now underway in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini under generally favourable conditions. However, dry conditions remain a concern in southern Angola, and recent storm impacts could influence final yields in central and northeastern Mozambique.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In East Asia, sowing is progressing in China for early double-crop rice (smallest season) and beginning for single-season rice (largest season). In Central & South Asia, transplanting of the Rabi and summer crops in India wraps up under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable for the development of the Boro crop (largest season) and the start of sowing for the Aus crop (smallest season). In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the Maha season crops is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the sowing of wet-season rice in Indonesia wraps up, and the harvesting of earlier sown crops is progressing faster than last year, with good yields. In Malaysia, the harvest of wet-season rice is progressing. In Brunei, the harvest of wet-season rice is progressing under excessive wet conditions, which have delayed harvesting. In Viet Nam, sowing of dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is progressing in the north as harvesting continues in the south. In Thailand, dry-season rice is in the grain-filling stage as harvesting begins in some areas. In the Philippines, conditions are generally favourable as the harvesting of dry-season rice begins. In Myanmar, the sowing of dry-season rice is continuing as the harvest of earlier sown crops begins mainly in the delta region. On March 28, a very strong earthquake struck the centre of the country, causing widespread and significant damage, and impacts to agriculture are to be determined. In Cambodia, the harvest of dry-season rice continues under favourable conditions. In the Americas, harvesting in Brazil is progressing under favourable conditions. In Argentina, the harvest is progressing. In Uruguay, the harvest is ongoing under favourable conditions. In the US, sowing is beginning in the south under favourable conditions. In Cuba, the second-season rice crop is in the vegetative to reproductive stages. In Haiti, the harvest of second-season rice crops is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Honduras, harvesting of second-season rice crops is continuing. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are mixed in Mozambique due to impacts from Cyclone Jude. In Tanzania, dry conditions remain on the northern coast. In Mali, the ongoing conflict remains a concern.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvest is progressing in Brazil under exceptional conditions in the North and Central-West regions due to good weather conditions, especially in Mato Grosso and Goiás. However, in the south, conditions are mixed due to a lack of rainfall and high temperatures during the vegetative and reproductive stages, reducing crop yields, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, high temperatures and prolonged dryness have negatively affected the early-planting (typically larger season) and late-planted (typically smaller season) crops in the Northern and Northwest regions. However, rains in late February and early March in the central agricultural region have positively affected both crops, improving grain filling in the early-planted crop and pod formation in the late-planted crop. In Uruguay, crops are in the grain filling stage under favourable conditions. In Africa, conditions have improved in South Africa over most areas due to widespread rainfall that has supported crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions were present during late March, and a transition to ENSO-neutral is underway, based on near-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Weak La Niña-like tropical atmospheric anomalies were observed during late March and may continue during April. Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through October 2025 (81 to 49 percent chances). At the end of 2025, there are similar chances of neutral or La Niña conditions, according to the CPC/IRI.
Global temperatures for February 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Forecast above-average temperatures during late March to late April raise the risk of heat stress during maize reproductive development in central Brazil and may exacerbate impacts of forecast below-average rainfall during that time.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecast (3 months) are both influenced by the current La Niña and reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the US Great Plains, Southwest, and Southeast. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of Canada and the US except for the Pacific Coast. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows below-average precipitation is likely across the US southwest and Great Plains. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the US except for the Pacific Coast. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and southeast Mexico, Guatemala, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, while below-average over western Cuba. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over central and northern Mexico. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests above-average precipitation over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 April 2025, issued on 28 March 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, northwest Brazil, Ecuador, western Peru, while below-average over northeast and central Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, northern Paraguay, northern Argentina. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and eastern Brazil, southern and western Peru, and Ecuador, while temperatures will likely be below-average over eastern Colombia, western Venezuela, southern Paraguay, and northern and central Argentina. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Colombia, western Venezuela, Ecuador, and northern Peru, while below-average over northeast and central and northeast Brazil, northeast Bolivia, Chile, and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Ecuador, northern and eastern Peru, western Bolivia, northern and central Brazil, Paraguay, northern Chile, and southern Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over the southern UK, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, central Germany, southern Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, southern Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and northwest of the Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over most of Europe except for Portugal, Spain, southern Italy, Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates no dominant tercile. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across all of Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 April 2025, issued on 28 March 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over north Algeria, Tunisia, northern Libya, central Egypt, and central east Saudi Arabia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and southern Saudi Arabia, northern Yemen, Oman, and central and southern Iran. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likely leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and central and northeast Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation eastern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, western and northern Cameroon, northeastern Central African Republic, southeastern Kenya, central and southern Tanzania, northeastern Mozambique, central South Africa, while below-average over southwest Mali, Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, Ethiopia, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern Botswana, northern Namibia, northeast South Africa. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Nigeria, western Niger, northern and southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, Chad, Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, southwest Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Mozambique, Eswatini, northeast South Africa, and Madagascar. For the long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is leaning towards above-average over eastern South Sudan and eastern Ethiopia, while below-average over Guinea-Bissau, western Guinea, Sierra Leone, Eritrea, Somalia, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern Botswana, southern Mozambique, and northeast South Africa. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for the west coast of Western Africa, coastal Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and southern Zambia. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely April-May-June (AMJ) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on March conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northeastern Kazakhstan, while below-average over southern Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, western Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region, except in northeastern Kazakhstan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central eastern Nepal and southwestern India, while below-average over northeast Pakistan and northwest India. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for eastern Sri Lanka. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwest India, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northeastern Pakistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and eastern and western India. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia or the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northeast China, while below-average over central and eastern China. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over central and northeast China, while a leaning towards below-average over southeast China. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for Japan’s Ryukyu Islands.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Myanmar, Thailand, western Laos, southern Philippines, northern Australia, and northern New Zealand, while below-average over eastern Malaysia, and central Indonesia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, northern Viet Nam, the Philippines, eastern Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, coastal Australia, and New Zealand, while below-average over the interior of Australia. The long-term April-May-June 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Philippines, southern and eastern Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while below-average over western Indonesia and Malaysia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over western and southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, western Cambodia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, most of Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely April-May-June (AMJ) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on March conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble